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1、0,I,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Click to edit Master title style,Noordwijk,October 4,2004,Prof.Roland Berger,Chairman,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,EU enlargement new opportunities for the chemical industry,Thechangingface ofEurope,Challenges and oppor

2、tunitiesofenlargementforEU 15,Opportunities for EU,15,chemicalplayersinCEEandCIS,Conclusion,Contents,A.,Thechangingface ofEurope,%ofEU25,France,Germany,Italy and Benelux:Sixwealthycorecountries starteconomic integration process in1957,1.1,EU 6(1957),*,*2003 data,Europes corecountries had sluggish gr

3、owth over the lasttenyears:Average growth 1.3%p.a.in Germany,1.7%inFrance,2.5%Netherlands,GDP/capita USD,28,608,118.0%,75.5%,%ofUS,Population m,227,50.0%,78.0%,GDPUSDbn,6,494,58.9%,59.0%,Denmark,IrelandandtheUnitedKingdom:First acces-sionround after16years increaseseconomicpower,1.2,EU 9(1973)*,*200

4、3 data,Asa result ofEUintegration,Irelands economicgrowth has beenout-standingly highoverthepast ten years:7.6%p.a.(DK 2.1%,UK2.8%),Population m,297,65.0%,102.0%,GDP/capita USD,29,141,120.2%,76.9%,GDPUSDbn,8,655,78.5%,78.8%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,Greece:A poorercountryjoins the EuropeanUnion in1981 first dis

5、cussions aboutdilution,1.3,EU 10(1981)*,*2003 data,Greecenowhashigh average growthrates(3.8%p.a.from 1995-2004)partly due to European moneyfrom structural/regionalfunds,GDPUSDbn,8,827,80.0%,80.3%,Population m,308,67.7%,106.2%,GDP/capita USD,28,659,118.3%,75.6%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,Spain and Portugal:Access

6、ion of two lessdeveloped southerncountries reduces EUs average wealth,1.4,EU 12(1986)*,*2003data,Today,the southerncountries contributeto EUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since 1995)and Portugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhigh averagegrowthrates,GDP USD bn,9,816,89.0%,89.3%,Population m,359,78.9%,123.0%,112.8%,72.2%,GD

7、P/capita USD,27,343,%of EU25,%of US,Sweden,Finland and Austria:Europes northern enlargement pushes up the average GDPper capita,1.5,EU 15(1995)*,*2003data,Stimulus toEU growth overthe past tenyears:Finlands economy grew 3.5%p.a.onaverage,Swedens 2.7%p.a.,andAustrias 2.0%p.a.,GDP USD bn,10,534,95.5%,

8、95.9%,Population m,381,83.7%,130.5%,GDP/capita USD,27,648,114.1%,73.0%,%of EU25,%of US,GDP USD bn,11,028,100.4%,Population m,455,156.0%,EasternEurope,Maltaand Cyprus:The biggest round ofenlargement ever changes theface of Europe,1.2,EU 25(2004),*,*2003data,GDP growth rates ofup to6.5%p.a.in CEE(aver

9、age 4.4%p.a.since95),But:Enlargement isa bigchallenge forEurope,an,Union to create wealth,GDP/capita USD,24,237,64.0%,%of US,50 years of enlargement:Compared to the US,the EU has gained sizeat theexpense of average wealth,Today,Europes GDPper capita isonly about two-thirds thatof theUS intermsof tot

10、al GDP,both economiesare now comparable,EU vs.US*,US=100%,59.0,77.5,80.3,89.3,95.9,100.4,78.0,102.0,106.2,123.8,130.5,156.0,75.5,76.9,75.6,72.2,73.0,64.0,1957,EU 6,1973,EU 9,1981,EU 10,1986,EU 12,1995,EU 15,2004,EU 25,GDP,Inhabitants,GDP percapita,US=100,*basedon 2003 data,1.3,Wealthgap:Ten years ag

11、o,the north ofthe European Union was richand thesouthwas poor,2.1,South gained wealth in,EU:From,34.4%of EU-9(1986)to 59.8%today,1995:Gap between north andsouth*,1995,*2003data,*EU 12 *Portugal,Spain,Greece,GDPUSD bn,Unemployment%,Populationm,SOUTH*,NORTH*,1,161,9,373,13.4,9.2,62,319,RATIO,9:1,GDP p

12、ercapitaUSD,18,726,29,383,3:2,2:3,5:1,7,429,27,620,4:1,Today,the gapis between east andwest GDP percapitain theEU 15is fourtimeshigherthan inEU 10,2.2,2004:Gap between east and west,EU support will helpEU 10 e,conomic,development toreachEU 15 wealth,2003,EU 10,EU 15,493,10,534,10.5,8.5,74,381,RATIO,

13、21:1,4:5,5:1,GDPUSD bn,Unemployment%,Populationm,GDP percapitaUSD,EU 25 vs.US vs.Asia:Enlarged EU isa still powerful,but the slowestgrowingeconomic region in the world,3.,Opportunity:Ten new states givethe EUmomentum to increasegrowth,ECONOMICPOWER,GDP,USDbn,Comparativeindicators2003,POPULATIONm,WEA

14、LTHGDPpercapita,USD,GROWTHavg.GDPgrowth1999-2003,%,10,988,290,3.3,11,028,455,2.3,US,EU25,ASIA*,*,AggregateddataforJapan,China,ASEAN,8,458,1,947,4.8,37,890,24,237,12,058,B.,ChallengesandopportunitiesofenlargementforEU15,Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,andgovern

15、ments,Economies,UnitlaborcostadvantagesinEU10,challengeexistingvaluecreationstructuresinEU15,butalsooffer,momentumforstructuralchange/innovationinEU15,Companies,Competition,in EU 15aswellasin EU 10,is increasing,but alsonew,sales,investment,growth and relocationopportunities,forEU 15 companiesin Eas

16、tern Europe,Governments,Existing,institutional setupsinEU 15 are challenged,by lowertaxes/contributions and higher flexibility inEU10,butalso,momentum forpolitical change,Effects ofenlargement,on,macroeconomic,and,microeconomic levels,Macroeconomic threats:Pressure onEU 15labormarkets andcompetitionfor best institutional setup,Low wage-competition/unemploymentthreats,Migration,(up to,3.8 m,peoplefromCEE will move to the EU15),Offshoring,(e.g.,830,000 people,in CEEemployed byGerman firms in 2004)